Many U.S. investors are understandably reluctant to invest in international companies. But I think they are missing an important opportunity.
The most common international asset class is large-cap blend stocks, roughly equivalent to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index SPX, +0.03% in the U.S. International large-cap blend stocks are represented by an index called EAFE, which stands for Europe, Australasia and Far East.
The S&P 500 holds the blue-chip companies of the U.S., and EAFE represents the blue-chip companies of the rest of the world.
Quite often, these indexes move up and down together. But just as often, one outperforms the other. Last year, 2014, EAFE lost 5.7%, while the S&P 500 gained 13.5%. Yet In 2015 through April 9, EAFE was up 8%, producing four times the 2% gain of the S&P 500.
Over the past 45 years, from 1970 through 2014, EAFE compounded at 9.7%, compared with 10.5% for the S&P 500. At those rates, a $100 initial investment would have grown to $6,405 in EAFE and to $8,845 in the S&P 500.
Also interesting: The combination of just these two indexes, rebalanced annually, produced a return of 10.3%.
EAFE’s best one-year gain was 69.9% in 1986; the best year for the S&P 500 was 1995, with a gain of 37.6%. The year 2008 was the worst for each index: EAFE lost 43.1% while the S&P 500 was down 37%.
For real-life investors, I think 15-year periods are more relevant than individual years.
In the 31 15-year periods from 1970 through 2014, EAFE’s average compound return was 11%, compared with 11.8% for the S&P 500.
Every one of those periods was profitable for EAFE; its best 15 years were from 1975 through 1989, with a compound return of 21.6%. (For the S&P 500, the best 15 years were from 1985 through 1999, with a gain of 18.9%.)
The worst 15-year period was the same for both indexes: 2000 through 2014. EAFE compounded at 3%, the S&P 500 at 4.2%.
By themselves, these numbers don’t make a compelling case for investing in EAFE. A number of investment advisers recommend skipping EAFE even by investors who own other international asset classes.
Some advisers go so far as to advocate skipping both the S&P 500 and EAFE. However, I believe 10% of any long-term equity portfolio should be in the S&P 500 and another 10% in international large-cap blend stocks. Let me tell you why.